All posts by Bryan Kavanagh

I'm a real estate valuer who worked in the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) before co-founding Westlink Consulting, a real estate valuation practice. I discovered, by leaving publicly-generated land rents to be privately capitalised by banks and individuals into escalating land price bubbles, this generates repetitive recessions and financial depressions. We need a tax-switch: from wages, profits and commodities onto economic rents/unearned incomes, if we are to create prosperity and minimise excessive private debt.

Robert Gottliebsen

I wish, like Robert Gottliesen, I could believe a change of government is going to do the trick for Australia: but it’s not. Here’s Bob’s latest:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/14/federal-budget/quiet-end-treasurys-tame-double-act#ixzz2TEFNMHta

I responded to him and a couple of commenters here:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/14/federal-budget/quiet-end-treasurys-tame-double-act#comment-293771

And to another commenter seriously believing the original resource super-profit tax would have damaged Australian mining:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/14/federal-budget/quiet-end-treasurys-tame-double-act#comment-293811







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You say we need more funds to tackle poverty, homelessness, health, the environment, education and infrastructure? I say instituting the Henry Tax Review is a BIG step towards solving those problems.

TAXES AND LAND PRICES: ENEMIES OF FREEDOM

Talking of “old”, I came across a group of old email exchanges I saved from the Longwaves list to which I belonged until the list folded in the early noughties. (As usual, vitriolic personality clashes from a hopelessly intense handful was the main part of the problem.)  Otherwise, we had some very good discussions and debates from many interesting personalities about the upcoming depression (although one or two thought such an outcome was impossible – eh, Eric/Dan?) Although the list was mainly concerned about the economy and proceedings within the share market, Tom Drake, having read an article of mine which connected the Kondratieff Longwave to the real estate market, invited me to join as I might have something to contribute.  This was one of what must have been several hundred of my dispatches:

RE: tax

At 11:24 AM 1/14/00 +0900, you wrote:

>Survey: U.S. Thirty Times More Civilized

>A recent survey by the Tax Foundation estimated

>that Americans “will spend more per capita in 1999

>on taxes ($10,298) than on food ($2,693), clothing

>($1,404), and shelter ($5,833) combined.”

>In 1904, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. made the famous

>statement that “taxes are what we pay for a civilized

>society.” The Tax Foundation points out that we must

>be awfully civilized by now – taxes are fully 30 times

>greater (in 1999 dollars) than when Holmes spoke.

>(Sources: Tax Foundation, as reported in “CEI UpDate,”

>Competitive Enterprise Institute)

RE: tax

14 January 2000 08:49 UTC, Bryan Kavanagh wrote:

(Uh oh! I feel another tax rant coming on!)

Taxes shouldn’t exist but, foolishly, we let them. Why?! “The only certainties in life are death and taxes” is a vast con trick worked on our gullibility. The Land Values Research Group recently quantified the annual value of all Australian natural resources, i.e. its annual ‘resource rent’–not to be confused with taxes–to be more than our total taxation at all three levels of government. (This is likely to be the case also in the US and other countries.) So, if we were to use this ‘natural fund’ to draw revenues for the use and abuse of nature, we could:-

. give the planet a real chance

. give ourselves the ultimate tax break, by abolishing totally the destructive taxing of labour and capital

. reduce land prices towards zero (land price is simply the private capitalisation of its uncollected rent)

. halve the size of future mortgages

. halve the price of all goods and services (because ‘rents’ can’t be passed on in prices as taxes are)

. free up vast the armies of bureaucrats, lawyers and accountants working in the field of taxation to do something   worthwhile with their lives

. create a genuine market in land and resources, removing at the same time the primary reason for seasons of economic recession and depression

. actually experience truly free markets and become free men and women

Taxes and land price are the real enemies of freedom, my brothers and sisters! Come over from the dark side!  🙂

(Ah! That didn’t half feel good.)

– Bryan Kavanagh







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DR GAVIN PUTLAND TELLS FRASER COAST RESIDENTS THEY’RE BEING HAD

A public meeting held at the Brolga Theatre Maryborough on 8 May heard Dr Putland explain the manner in which those on minimum rates in the Fraser Coast municipality are subsidising the wealthy.

The Fraser Coast’s mayor was not looking well in The Chronicle’s coverage of the meeting.







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You say we need more funds to tackle poverty, homelessness, health, the environment, education and infrastructure? I say instituting the Henry Tax Review is a BIG step towards solving those problems.

 

VICTORIAN BRANCH OF THE AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY INSTITUTE PLUMBS NEW DEPTHS

The second item in today’s Victorian API news demonstrates the Australian Property Institute is losing its way:

“Property taxes shoulder Vic budget

THE Victorian government is becoming addicted to property taxes, which will raise over $6 billion in forward estimates for the 2013-14 Victorian State Budget.” [My emphasis]

Now “becoming addicted to property taxes” is in no way exhortatory, or pushing a barrow, is it?

The API has apparently got to the stage where the organisation, founded by statutory valuers in 1910 mind you, now joins the ranks of urgers and touts, such as the Real Estate Institute of Victoria, to decry land-based revenues.

Of course, I was impelled to reply as follows:

“THE Victorian government is becoming addicted to property taxes, which will raise over $6 billion in forward estimates for the 2013-14 Victorian State Budget.”

An institute purportedly representing valuers—it was after all founded in 1910 by Commonwealth Taxation Office valuers—should know a very good case for reforming and extending current state land taxes was made in a thoroughgoing report by the Henry Tax Review panel. The words “becoming addicted” in the sentence above therefore disgraces both the API and the person who wrote them.

–       Bryan Kavanagh AAPI

______________________

This is the professional institute of which I was once proud to be a member.  Once known as the Australian Institute of Valuers, it is rapidly becoming indistinguishable from just another branch of the property lobby.

_______________________

You may say we need ‘more funds’ to tackle poverty, homelessness, health, the environment, education and infrastructure? I say instituting the Henry Tax Review is a BIG step towards solving those problems.

SUCH IS THE CLEVERNESS THAT GOT US HERE

Was Mason Gaffney on the mark, or not, in November 1986?

BOTTLING THE AIR – by Mason Gaffney

“Don’t you know that if people could bottle the air, they would?  … there would be an American Air-Bottling Association …. they would let millions die for want of breath, if they could not pay for the air.” — Robert G. Ingersoll

Times have caught up with Ingersoll.  Ronald Coase, prominent Chicago economist, says polluters (whom he calls emitters, to avoid bias) have as much right to emit as victims (he says receptors) have to breathe clean air.  It doesn’t matter, says Coase, how we assign property rights originally: as long as property is firm, the market will sort it all out.

However, since emitters have invested in costly facilities, and property is sacred … you see whither this unbiased science is tending?

Was he laughed to scorn?  Au contraire, he was raised on the shoulders of his adulatory peers and anointed a demi-god (which tells you something about his peers).  Having risen on wings of theory the idea found its way into practice, and today The South Coast Air Quality Management District awards “offset rights” to those with worthy track records of emitting.  New emitters must buy “property rights” from old ones.

In effect, we don’t fine people for emitting, we reward them with a right to continue.  Then we can pay them to stop, by buying back the right we just gave away.  This is putting the free market to work, they say.  If you have not been emitting before, too bad.  I have offered not to emit millions of tons of nitrates, and sulfates too.  My price is modest, and highly competitive.  I underbid the big refineries by 50%, but Air District officials just hang up on me, if you can believe it.

They say I must have earned my offset right by suffocating the neighbors in the unregulated past.

Pursuant to Coase we should no doubt award the Ukraine a perpetual right to have melt-downs at Chernobyl, rights they could then sell to Uganda or Paraguay or other LDC wanting to modernize with a melt-down or two.  Nicotine fiends with proven records of smoking in crowded rooms regularly over at least the last four years will receive official charm bracelets they can flash whenever asked to butt out.  These, of course, will be modern “bearer bracelets,” transferable to the highest bidder.

Anyone caught leaving a room filled with such legally sanctioned smoke might well be fined, and charged with violating the bracelet-bearer’s 5th Amendment rights.

And those who want to breathe?  Coase says they should pay for the privilege, as they pay for indulging any personal taste.

After all, they already pay those who supply them with land to live on.  Only welfare bums would expect property owners to dip into their hard-earned savings and supply them with free air, when the market has a solution at hand.  All they need do is buy offset rights from Ancient and Honorable Emitters.  When they want to breathe, they just retire the rights upwind of them.

This is a marvel of efficiency, too.  They retire only what it takes to clean the air they need: no waste.

If they can’t afford to buy outright, they could rent – markets have ingenious solutions for all problems, like any good panacea.  Gas masks are another free-market solution: much better than socialistic policies that would impose uniform clean air on everyone, whether they want it or not.

What about the new-born, with no prior history of either emitting or breathing?  They come innocently into the world with no basis for being grandfathered in, and little money.  Sometimes real men must put aside maudlin whining, grit their teeth, and just pull up the ladder, lest the lifeboat be swamped.  It’s the free market way of population control, a modified kind of natural selection.  As for the alleged innocence of the little brats, remember Original Sin, and The Lord of the Flies.  There is, to be sure, a noisy crowd who want clean air to be generally available, and prate emotionally of natural beauty and rights.

They are only “environmental activists,” an odd elitist lot whom objective scientists may disregard.

For that they gave Coase a Nobel Prize.  You see, old Ingersoll was on the mark.  Nothing is too absurd once we accept invading, usurping, and leeching as the bases of property.

__________________

It’s me again. Coase-thinking is no different from Ayn Rand-thinking, the thinking of those who favour PPPs for infrastructure development, and the thinking of those in local government who want the revenue system to be based on improved values, even though it acts to deter improving properties.

Local government is a big problem in Australia. The independent panel looking into local government in New South Wales considers there might be a case for Capital Improved Value rating if the change wasn’t so messy. Wrong! It’s messy because it’s a rotten system. Evidence? The comprehensive Royal Commission of Inquiry into Rating, Valuation and Local Government Finance, New South Wales 1965-1967 under the chairmanship of Justice Rae Else-Mitchell confirmed site value rating to be the fairest and best rating base. Also, Sir Gordon Chalk’s 1989 inquiry into the Brisbane rating system which, after great deliberation, came to precisely the same conclusion.

But, no! As the Henny Penny syndrome has set in amongst all the pipsqueaks at local government;  they all recite the same mantra: “We need CIV rating!”, “We need minimum rates!” (so the poor can subsidise the wealthy presumably), and “We need differential rates!”  (so we can play god with the rating base and defeat its purpose) – blissfully unaware of the inquiries mentioned into why SV rating can’t be equalled by any other revenue system.

You are left wondering in whose interests these people are working. Or is Coase-like stupidity simply a phase through which we had to pass?







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MORE TOLLWAYS? THERE’S A BETTER WAY

Tim Colebatch’s article Tolling existing freeways on wish list in THE AGE today warrants a response.

The Property Council of Australia has produced a report Supercharging the Victorian Economy which obviously doesn’t want property investors to pay their fair share of the uplift in values new infrastructure provides.  They prefer instead:-

Melbourne’s freeway network should be converted to toll roads, leased out to private operators and subjected to peak-hour pricing as part of a series of reforms proposed to tackle congestion, build new infrastructure and make the most of what we have.

Yep, that’s “supercharging” alright! [Don’t you love the dramatic irony?] Surely this is nothing but an extension of the “user pays” model, the inspiration of Ayn Rand, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher at al which has delivered nations to the point where economies are collapsing about our ears? (“Move along people! No such thing as community interest here, folks !”)

Spokesperson for the Property Council of Australia, Jennifer Cunic, interviewed about the report by Ross Stevenson and John Burns on 3AW’s breakfast program this morning didn’t give an inch. The absence of land value capture in the Property Council’s proposals was palpable.

Ross and John then proceeded to conduct a survey showing 81% of people to be against further toll roads and 19% in favour, but you’d have to admit such self-serving reports in favour of big real estate interests have had a habit of getting up as policy.* Beware, be very aware. Let’s hope we can make the transition from the niggardly “user pays” to land value capture, where the beneficiary pays, because there is a community interest here guys – and it’s represented by unprivatising community-generated land rent.

Maybe the following explains why land value capture doesn’t loom large on the big rent-seekers’ agenda. They’re wanting a free lunch:-

* STOP PRESS: How prophetic!  It did turn up as policy in Victorian Treasurer O’Brien’s budget later today. The East-West tunnel link is to be commenced and developed as a Private-Public Partnership (PPP) venture, despite these starting to fail around the country. [Sigh!]


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OF BANK BUBBLES AND VOTERS

BANK BUBBLES AGAIN

Talking about frank analyses of bank bubbles, I was just watching Alan Kohler with ANZ Bank’s Mike Smith on the topic on the ABC’s “Inside Business” this morning.

Desultory conversation skirted around the point of a banking bubble and, after touching upon Australian banks’ high P/E ratios and ROEs relative to other banks, the ever-urbane ANZ boss mentioned we’ve been relying on central bank monetary policy because fiscal policy is failing. He then faced Kohler’s final question which brought him back to the topic: “Will it come to an end?”

“It will come to an end …. with a degree of pain”, Smith responded.

You been at the truth pills, Mike? Westpac’s Gail Kelly was truer to bankster form when the same question had been put to her elsewhere. She simply obfuscated.

All those dollars and nothing to do with them, huh, guys?

The bubble burst is coming, and it’s coming fast. High Australian dollar? I wouldn’t bet on it staying there!

VOTERS

Understanding the above might assist to solve a paradox that seemed to elude Barrie Cassidy in the ABC’s preceding program “Insiders”.

When polled, people strongly favour the fibre-to-the-home NBN, the NDIS and the recommendations of the Gonski Report.

However, when the question includes Julia Gillard or the government’s implementation of the NBN, the NDIS and Gonski, the popularity for these programs seems to fall away substantially. It’s an understatement to say the minority government is on the nose.

I think you know governments lose elections, Barrie. And they usually lose them because of the “hip pocket nerve” syndrome: not because of the voters welded on to either the ALP or the Liberal party, but because of the swinging voter.

And, if you haven’t noticed, Barrie, the swinging voter has been doing it very hard – along with many of the limpets attached to the Lib/Labs who won’t change their vote. He or she has taken out a mortgage on a new or updated home, taken the credit card up to its limits, and still the bills continue mount. It’s a real worry! And it must be the government’s fault!

Debtload is apparently all the government’s fault. Those of us with excessive debt rarely blame ourselves for our own stupidity with the banking parasites.

Trust this solves your polling conundrum, Barrie? Problem-solving’s my game.







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BANKS INFLATE BUBBLES

Another record profit off the back of the world’s greatest residential real estate bubble. How on earth was Westpac, like the other big three, able to manage that one? Quelle surprise!

But what about its risk management? Remember, Westpac nearly fell at the late 1980s commercial bubble hurdle, at the same time the State Bank of Victoria went under (due to the excesses of Tricontinental). Did the bank learn anything from that episode about what happens to land values when a bubble bursts?

Hasn’t the bank once again lent against a gargantuan bubble?  [Remarkable!]

Take your dividends while you can, folks, but the question of failed risk management must be asked of each of big four banks before one cent of Australian taxpayers’ money is spent on bailing them out.

Oh, there’s no chance of that happening this time around because they’ve packaged up and onsold many of their mortgages in CDOs? And they’ve conducted worst case risk management scenarios, haven’t they?

Oh really? Pull the other one.

—ooOoo—

[Wouldn’t it be nice to see such fresh analyses in the Fin Review, or on “Inside Business”?]







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You say we need more funds to tackle poverty, homelessness, health, the environment, education and infrastructure? I say instituting the Henry Tax Review is a BIG step towards solving those problems.