Australian mortgage stress has reached critical levels in late 2026, driven by a series of aggressive interest rate hikes that have pushed household budgets to their absolute limits. Following four Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increases in 2026, the official cash rate now stands at a 15-year high of 4.60%. [1, 2, 3]

Independent modelling shows that over 33% of all Australian mortgage holders (approximately 1.818 million people) are now classified as “at risk” of mortgage stress, while 22.7% are “extremely at risk”. This has triggered a massive rush toward refinancing as families attempt to stay afloat. [1, 2, 3]

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The USA real estate market has reached a critical turning point where nominal prices are plateauing. They have officially topped out in inflation-adjusted (real) terms. Major real estate indices show that while the national median home price is hovering near all-time highs, a widening regional divergence means several previously booming markets are experiencing notable price corrections. [1, 2, 3, 4]

The primary driver behind this stagnation is an extreme affordability crisis caused by a combination of high property costs and average 30-year fixed mortgage rates surging back above 7.4%. [1, 2]

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The Mortgage

Will Carleton (1845-1912) “Farm Festivals”

We worked through spring and winter, through summer and through fall, But the mortgage worked the hardest and steadiest of all: It worked on nights and Sundays, it worked each holiday It settled down among us, and it never went away; Whatever we kept from it seemed almost as bad as theft It watched us every minute and it ruled us right and left.

The rust and blight were with us sometimes and sometimes not. The dark-browed, scowling mortgage was forever on the spot. The weevil and the cutworm, they went as well as came, The mortgage stayed for ever eating hearty all the same. It nailed up every window, stood guard on every door, And happiness and sunshine made their home with us no more.

Till with failing crops and sickness we got stalled upon the grade, And there came a dark day on us when the interest wasn’t paid. And there came a sharp foreclosure, and I kind of lost my hold, And grew weary and discouraged, and the farm was cheaply sold. The children left and scattered, when they hardly yet were grown; My wife she pined and perished, and I found myself alone.

What she died of was a mystery, and the doctor never knew, But I knew she died of mortgage, just as well’s I wanted to. If to trace a hidden sorrow were within the doctor’s art, They’d have found a mortgage lying on that woman’s broken heart. Worm or beetle, drought or tempest, on a farmer’s land may fall, But for first class ruination trust a mortgage ‘gainst them all.

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Reprinted in PROGRESS, February 1928

HOUSEHOLD DEBT PROBLEMS

While European outliers like Norway use structural wealth and high incomes to safely carry high debt-to-income loads, Australia remains uniquely vulnerable because such a massive portion of its debt is concentrated strictly in high-value, domestic real estate. [1, 2]

…. as per Henry George.

“Whence shall come the new barbarians? Go through the squalid quarters of great cities, and you may see, even now, their gathering hordes! How shall learning perish? Men will cease to read, and books will kindle fires and be turned into cartridges.” [1, 2]

– Henry George

The almost forgotten sub-title of George’s Progress and Poverty is “An Inquiry into the Cause of Industrial Depressions and of Increase of Want with Increase of Wealth: The Remedy“.

As the next depression looms, people have begun rioting in Europe and others are committing mindless violence in Australian streets. It’s beyond time for our political representative to apply this remedy, a simple fiscal adjustment that–despite delivering socioeconomic justice to everyone–is likely to once again be resisted by rent seeking interests. But that’s no excuse not to try, Australian politicians!

PART ONE

PART TWO

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While online platforms widely anticipate a major recession next year, Australian mainstream media remains noticeably silent. This omission likely stems from fears that discussing a downturn might hasten the event. News outlets may also be hesitant to alienate banking and real estate advertisers, who provide significant financial backing.

The ABC has been deterred from entering this space to provide information or ask questions. Repeated accusations of a “left-wing bias”–and outright calls to ban the broadcaster–have had a cautionary effect.

But how much depth can we go into on such shallow subjects?

“Insiders” has become a shadow of what once it was. Would its former host, Barrie Cassidy, have the fortitude to broach the subject that David Speers obviously hasn’t?

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