About Me

I began my real estate valuation career with the Australian Taxation Office and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia before co-founding a Melbourne-based valuation practice in 1997, where I served as a director until my retirement in 2013. My expertise lies in property cycles, taxation, and their economic implications.

I’ve spoken at international forums, including two Pacific Rim valuation conferences and on “Lifting the Lid on the GFC” at Melbourne Town Hall in 2009, alongside professors Michael Hudson and Steve Keen. In 2013, I addressed an academic symposium on land value taxation in Chengdu, China. My 2007 booklet, “Unlocking the Riches of Oz”, critiqued the impact of income and consumption taxes, arguing they effectively halve Australia’s potential GDP. In November 2024, I spoke at the University of Central Queensland’s property conference.

The Disconnect: Real Estate and the Economy

In 1973, while working in the valuation section of the Australian Taxation Office, I observed a critical disconnect between the economy and Australia’s real estate market. That year, the office moved into the new WH Holmes Building at 270 King Street, Melbourne, built by Mainline Corporation, a major office builder which collapsed in 1974. This, alongside the failure of Cambridge Credit (the finance arm of the National Bank of Australia), foreshadowed the 1974–75 recession.

Curious why the federal Treasury and Reserve Bank of Australia failed to curb the speculative real estate bubble that triggered the bust, I discovered a critical gap: neither they nor the Australian Bureau of Statistics collected comprehensive data on aggregate real estate sales. In 1988, I confirmed this with inquiries to these institutions.

The Barometer of the Economy

As director of the Land Values Research Group, succeeding the late Allan Hutchinson, I began compiling estimates of total Australian real estate sales back to 1972. My analysis revealed that when real estate sales exceeded 19% of GDP, a bubble formed, and a subsequent drop below this “bubble line” reliably forecast economic recessions. I dubbed this the “Barometer of the Economy,” highlighting how real estate markets lead and shape economic outcomes.

My colleague, Dr. Gavin Putland, later refined this into the Kavanagh-Putland Index, which signals a recession within two years once the index declines by 25%.

A Jeremiad? Hardly.

Mainstream economics overlooks the role of real estate markets and land rents—comprising roughly 50% of the economy—in driving boom-bust cycles. Defenders of this “natural business cycle” aren’t championing capitalism but assisting to enable rentierism, which undermines socio-economic stability. Media commentary, wary of being labeled “doomsaying,” skirts around these truths.

Pointing out economic realities and proposing solutions is not pessimism—it’s providing clarity. If jumping off a building leads to a predictable “splat” at the bottom, ignoring real estate’s role in economic crashes is equally reckless. The Great Recession/GFC exposed this failure. Although recessions grow worse, political inaction on boom/bust remains. Why is this? Who benefits from failing to address the cause?

The Depression Blog

Since starting my blog on August 26, 2009, I’ve shared insights, including pieces sent to politicians—who, curiously, remain indifferent to the ills of rent-seeking. My writing explores how misnamed “real estate markets” control and distort economies. True reform requires the significant taxing of land rents, which then poses the question: Are you using this land productively, or merely speculating on its price?

My commentary, occasionally quirky, cuts through the noise with straightforward analysis—no “on the one hand, on the other” equivocation.

As the current Kondratieff Wave tanks towards another depression, I try to spark discussion and to influence thinking about these incredibly repetitive financial failures.

Bryan Kavanagh

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ps. I also tweet @bryankav123