ACCURATE FORECASTING IS THE STUFF OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

I was terribly, terribly upset when I didn’t rate a mention in Dr Dirk Bezemer’s list of those who forecast this global financial collapse.  [Sob!] After all, I did forecast that it would be with us by 2009 in the British journal Geophilos in 2001: likewise in a  videoed address at Melbourne Uni in 2005, and in Unlocking the Riches of Oz in 2007. [Sob!]

But maybe Dirk Bezemer was looking at economists only, in order to emphasise the point that so very few of these purportedly professional people were able to see this depression coming – so perhaps he wasn’t interested in people employed in real estate who foresaw it?

Of course, whatever we’re called, valuers-assessors-chartered surveyors, we ought to be at the top of any list of economic forecasters, because unlike economists we do understand that the real estate market leads and directs the economy.  Economists don’t, except for the handful on Bezemer’s list; that’s what distinguishes his tiny group from their more pedestrian confreres.  As Henry George once famously said, economists who can’t explain financial depressions are simply “mules packing a library”.

And I hope my two submissions to Australia’s Future Tax System, one of which I reproduce here, may have influenced the recommendations of Ken Henry’s committee.  You never know.



 

You say we need more funds to tackle poverty, homelessness, health, the environment, education and infrastructure? I say instituting the Henry Tax Review is a BIG step towards solving those problems.

THE COLLAPSE CONTINUES ….

THE STORY SO FAR

OK, so now we’re at the stage where Ford’s knicking off out of Australia and General Motors is telling Holden workers they cost too much. Textile’s gone overseas and our once efficient ship-building industry was closed down years ago.

You might say manufacturing has had it. We try to recover the situation by claiming we’ve become a “post-industrial” society.  Yeah, sure!

Retail’s going bust, too.

We have all these effete economists who can talk the leg off a chair now having us convinced we need to extend the GST, rather than look to economic rents and monopolistic privilege for our necessary revenue.

Australians have become a witless lot; we stupidly accept the taxing of labour and capital rather than deriving necessary revenues from land and resource rents and natural monopolies as once we used to do.

You see, if you tax labour and capital the taxes are passed on in every stage of the production process, adding themselves and their deadweight to the prices of our products, nobody wants them.  Why would they?

It’s NOT a matter of excessive labour costs: it’s taxation and all its deadweight cascading throughout the Australia economy.

When are we going to realise the one thing most economists DO get right (but then weakly retreat from): that revenues from economic rents CAN’T be passed on in prices?

That’s the way to get back into manufacturing and to have our goods and services priced competitively.  However, I doubt Australians are up for it these days–we’ve become a little thick-witted–so down the gurgler we continue to disappear.

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EVIDENCE ON HOW ECONOMIC RENT BEHAVES

Municipal rates and land tax are notionally already in the gross rent paid by a tenant, and can’t be ‘passed on’ again to the tenant:

If, as claimed by vested interests, the land value tax can be passed on, why do not these representatives of special privilege pass the measure and allow their friends to pass it on?  The reason is they know that the land values tax cannot be transferred. – EJ Craigie, former South Australian politician, circa 1958.

A.  CLASSICAL ECONOMISTS:

1 Though the landlord is in all cases the real contributor, the tax is commonly advanced by the tenants, to whom the landlord is obliged to allow it in payment of the rent. – Adam Smith “Wealth of Nations” Book 5, Ch 2

2 A tax on rent falls wholly on the landlord.  There are no means by which he can shift the burden upon anyone else… A tax on rent, therefore, has no effect other than the obvious one. It merely takes so much from the landlord and transfers it to the State. – John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) “Principles of Political Economy”  Book 5, Ch 3, Sect 2

3 The power of transferring a tax from the person who actually pays it to some other person varies with the object taxed.  A tax on rents cannot be transferred.  A tax on commodities is always transferred to the consumer. –   Professor James E Thorold Rogers “Political Economy” 2nd ed Ch 21, p 285

4 A tax levied in proportion to the rent of land, and varying with every variation of rents… will fall wholly on the landlords. – Walker’s “Political Economy”, p 413

5 The incidence of the ground tax, in other words, is on the landlord.  He has no means of shifting it; for, if the tax were to be suddenly abolished, he would nevertheless be able to extort the same rent, since the ground rent is fixed solely by the demand of the occupiers.  The tax simply diminishes his profits. – ERA Seligman “Incidence of Taxation” pp 244-245

6 A tax on rent would affect rent only: it would fall only on landlords and could not be shifted. The landlord could not raise the rent, because he would have unaltered the difference between the produce obtained from the least productive land in cultivation and that obtained from land of every other quality. – David Ricardo “Principles of Political Economy and Taxation” Ch 10, Sect 62

7 The way taxes raise prices is by increasing the cost of production and checking supply.  But land is not a thing of human production, and taxes upon rent cannot check supply.  Therefore, though a tax upon rent compels owners to pay more, it gives them no power to obtain more for the use of their land, as it in no way tends to reduce the supply of land.  On the contrary, by compelling those who hold land for speculation to sell or let for what they can get, a tax on land values tends to increase the competition between owners, and thus to reduce the price of land. – Henry George Progress and Poverty, Book 8, Ch 3

B.  MODERN ECONOMISTS

1 Pure land rent is in the nature of a “surplus” which can be taxed without affecting production incentives. – Paul A Samuelson, Hancock & Wallace, “Economics – An Introductory Analysis” (Australian Edition) Ch 28 p 595

2 …. the complete inelasticity of the supply of land means that a tax on land rent has no effect on price or output and therefore does not alter resource allocation…This outcome is in contrast to property taxes on buildings.. Jackson & McConnell, “Economics” (2nd Aust Ed pp 540/541)

3 The (land) tax cannot be passed on to consumers… The failure of the single tax idea does not change the fact that a large increment of value does accrue to the owners of land, particularly in or near urban areas, due to the growth of the economy, without the landlord having to contribute any productive factor services in order to earn it. – Richard G Lipsey, “An Introduction to Positive Economics” (3rd ed.)

4 Aside from its compelling appeal to the public’s sense of justice, a single tax on land has another advantage over most other forms of taxation – it is neutral in its effects on production incentives and resource allocation. – Waud, Hocking, Maxwell & Bonnici, “Economics” (Australian Edition)

C.   SO, FOR THE SAKE OF EFFICIENCY AND GREATER HOUSING AFFORDABILITY, WHY NOT PUT MORE REVENUE WHERE IT ULTIMATELY FALLS ANYWAY?

It is in vain in a country whose great fund is land to hope to lay the publick charge of the Government on anything else; there at last it will terminate. The merchant (do what you can) will not bear it, the labourer cannot, and therefore the landholder must: and whether he were best to do it by laying it directly where it will at last settle, or by letting it come to him by the sinking of his rents, … let him consider.”  — John Locke, “Some Considerations of the Lowering of Interest” (1691).

I have not lost any of the principles of public economy you once knew me possessed of; but to get the bad customs of a country changed, and new ones, though better, introduced, it is necessary first to remove the prejudices of the people, enlighten their ignorance, and convince them that their interest will be promoted by the proposed changes; and this is not the work of a day.  Our legislators are all landholders; and they are not yet persuaded that all taxes are finally paid by the Land. — Benjamin Franklin, Letter to Alexander Small, (September 28, 1787).

RIP PAUL MEES – AND GUARDIAN COMMENT ON FUNDING PUBLIC TRANSPORT

PAUL MEES

Inveterate advocate for Victoria’s public transport system Dr Paul Mees died in Melbourne yesterday after a fifteen month battle with cancer. He was 52.

Current Public Transport Users Association president Tony Morton said last night that Professor Mees “personified the transport debate in Victoria, and called successive governments to account for their neglect of public transport”.

He certainly did.

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PUBLIC TRANSPORT FUNDING

Whilst we’re discussing public transport proponents, an article “Maybe buses should be free” in The Economist on the same day Paul Mees died  received a number of responses. I reproduce the most logical of these comments which came from Dr Gavin R. Putland:-

“The benefit of public transport, net of fares paid for actual use, is shown in prices of access to locations where that benefit is available — in other words, LAND VALUES. So the beneficiaries of any extension or improvement of public transport include not only the passengers, but also the affected property owners. The same principle applies to other types of infrastructure whose benefits are location-specific.

Equity therefore demands that property owners give back some of the benefit through a charge on UNEARNED INCREMENTS in land values. Paradoxically, the property owners would be better off than they are now. If the responsible government, through the tax system, received a certain fraction of every unearned increment, infrastructure projects whose cost/benefit ratios are less than that fraction would be profitable for the government and would therefore proceed. Thus property owners would reap land-value windfalls that they would not otherwise get, due to projects that would not otherwise be funded.

Implementation does not require an increase in taxation. It requires a one-off change in the tax BASE so that future investment in infrastructure pays for itself by expanding the tax BASE without any increase in tax rates. The initial change in the base could be revenue-neutral. For example, a range of inefficient taxes, including existing property-transfer taxes, could be replaced by a property-vendor duty on real capital gains. The rate of the vendor duty might then be in the “sweet spot”: high enough to drive infrastructure investment at full capacity, but low enough to give property owners an attractive slice of the benefit.

Because the uptake of public transport will be socially optimal if tickets are priced at marginal cost, and because taxes on uplifts in land values have low efficiency costs (none if they are implemented as holding charges), the efficient way to fund public transport is to cover the marginal cost through fares and the fixed costs through uplifts in land values. Allowing for transaction costs and for the savings that can be made by smoothing the load, the best practical approximation to marginal-cost fares is to offer free travel at off-peak times, using fares only as congestion charges. If that requires a proof-of-payment system, so be it. But with better funding through land-value capture, hence better provisioning, the scope for “congestion charges” would be narrower than at present.”







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A GATSBY ENDING FOR AUSTRALIA?

The media’s preoccupation with Rudd v. Gillard v. Abbott amounts to beer and circuses as Australia disappears down the gurgler.  The excesses of reality TV and the footy compound the craziness into a new normal.

And you can rely on radio’s shock jocks to keep the pot boiling because this sort of pap is popular, even if it does get Howard Sattler sacked. It keeps peoples’ minds off blaming themselves for the strife they’re in–the amount of debt they’ve been carrying–and of course it’s easy to blame the Labor government and the Prime Minister, because they certainly have let us down.

Looking the other way–away from what the almost invisible 0.5% has done to Australia–has replaced leadership.  Mainstream media knows from whence its pay emanates, so the only reform it’s going to call for is a change of government.

And so Australians beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past …. so to speak.








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NO, WE AINT EXACTLY “LEADING EDGE” IN THE 21ST CENTURY!

Richard Cobden also documented this process in an 1845 parliamentary debate on the Corn Laws:

“I warn ministers, and I warn landlords and the aristocracy of this country, against forcing on the attention of the middle and industrial classes, the subject of taxation ….. If you were to bring forward the history of taxation in this country for the last 150 years, you will find as black a record against the landowners as even in the Corn Law itself.

I warn them against ripping up the subject of taxation. If they want another league at the death of this one – if they want another organisation and a motive – then let them force the middle and industrial classes to understand how they have been cheated, robbed and bamboozled …..

For a period of 150 years after the conquest, the whole of the revenue of the country was derived from the land. During the next 150 years it yielded nineteen-twentieths of the revenue. For the next century down to the reign of Richard III it was nine-tenths. During the next 70 years to the time of Mary it fell to about three-fourths. From this time to the end of the Commonwealth, land appeared to have yielded one-half the revenue. Down to the reign of Anne it was one-fourth. In the reign of George III it was one-sixth. For the first thirty years of his reign the land yielded one-seventh of the revenue. From 1793 to 1816 (during the period of the land tax), land contributed one ninth. From which time to the present one twenty-fifth only of the revenue of the revenue had been derived directly from land.

Thus, the land, which anciently paid the whole of taxation, paid now only a fraction, or one twenty-fifth, notwithstanding the immense increase that had taken place in the value of the rentals. The people had fared better under despotic monarchs than when the powers of the state had fallen into the hands of a landed oligarchy who had first exempted themselves from taxation, and next claimed compensation for themselves by a corn law for their heavy and peculiar burdens.”

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Conclusion?  We’ve been dudded into penury and debt. We don’t even have the disposable incomes of the 15th century English labourer with a family of five after allowance for the cost of our food, clothing and shelter, much less the better-paid artisan English carpenter!







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