It’s a cyclical thing, but “Lucas Critique” types, including namesake 1995 Nobel Economics winner Robert Lucas, can’t accept the regularity of the land price cycle because it makes economists appear ineffectual. William Vickery, the 1996 winner, being a supporter of the ideas of Henry George, understood these real estate boom and bust cycles and the socioeconomic devastation they generate.

Here’s the chart of these 18-year real estate cycles again. Arising from impossible levels of land prices and mortgage debt, the 2027 to 2030 crunch may be expected to be in the order of the 1930s depression, so we’ll need to apply Vimmlbutt.

But are we smart enough to do it this time?