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THE DAILY TELEGRAPH – 6 APRIL 2026
David Bird, ASX Trader: Property expert warns of major Aussie market shift by 2026
Australia’s real estate boom is approaching a critical inflection point similar to just before the GFC, where the housing market is barrelling toward a hefty downturn by 2028, writes ASX Trader.
This week, I sat down with Catherine Cashmore, founder of The Land Cycle Investor, to unpack one of the most overlooked frameworks in markets, the 18-year property cycle and what it could mean for Australia as we move into the back end of this decade.
At a time when most Australians are still debating whether property prices can keep rising, Cashmore is asking a far more uncomfortable question:
What if the peak is already locked in?
Cashmore is not a typical market commentator. With a background spanning property analysis, economic research, and financial media, she has spent years studying the structural drivers behind real estate cycles.
She is widely recognised for her work on housing markets and has built a reputation for challenging mainstream narratives with data-driven, long-term analysis.
In our conversation, she laid out a thesis that cuts directly against the grain: Australia is not heading for a soft landing, but toward the final phase of an 18-year land cycle with a peak expected around 2026–27 and a downturn into 2028–30.
What makes this view particularly compelling is that it doesn’t stand alone. It aligns with multiple long-term frameworks I’ve written about previously including the Benner Cycle and what I call the release cycle — all pointing toward the same window of risk.
The Benner Cycle predicts 100-plus years of market movement.
A Convergence Most Investors Are Missing
This is not just one theory.
It’s a convergence.
The Benner Cycle, first developed in the 1800s, maps long-term boom and bust periods across markets. Its projected peaks have historically aligned with major turning points — including the lead-up to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and now the mid-2020s.
At the same time, the land cycle, something I’ve written about extensively (Ignore at your peril: 2026 shaping as perfect storm for recession) helps explain the acceleration we’ve seen in recent years.
Post-COVID, we witnessed:
• Record stimulus
• Ultra-low interest rates
• Surging liquidity
• Explosive asset price growth
That wasn’t random. It was an excess phase — where pent-up demand and capital flood into markets, typically in the latter stages of a broader cycle.
Cashmore’s land cycle framework independently arrives at the same conclusion: we are now in the final phase.
The Big Idea: Land Drives Everything
David Bird: Catherine, most people see property as just one part of the market. You see it differently?
Catherine Cashmore:
Completely differently. Land is the foundation of the entire economy.
Every business operates on it. Every household needs access to it. Even equities are tied to it through the assets companies hold.
As land values rise, capital gets pulled away from productive activity — things like innovation, wages, and business investment — and redirected into speculation.
That’s the beginning of the cycle.
The 18-Year Pattern
At the centre of Cashmore’s work is a repeating structure that has appeared across centuries:
• Around 12–14 years of rising land values
• A mid-cycle slowdown
• A final surge driven by speculation
• Then a downturn
Cashmore:
It’s not a perfect clock, but it’s remarkably consistent.
It reflects the time it takes for credit to expand, speculation to build, construction to respond, and eventually for the system to become unstable.
The 18-year real estate cycle. Source: Bryan Kavanagh
The Timing Problem Mainstream Economists Can’t Solve
Cashmore is direct about one of the biggest blind spots in mainstream economics.
Cashmore:
There’s no doubt in my mind we’re heading into a major downturn. The real question isn’t if, it’s when, and this is what mainstream economists cannot answer.
They can explain why things look stretched. They can point to rising risks, elevated valuations, and structural imbalances. But when it comes to timing, they fall short.
History makes that clear.
In 2007, the consensus view was that house prices would continue rising. It was treated as a long-term trend, supported by a banking system many believed could not fail.
Very few economists were calling a peak.
Those who did, like Steve Keen, were not widely accepted at the time. They were only recognised in hindsight.
What followed was not a gentle correction. It was a global financial crisis, with banking systems collapsing across multiple regions.
Cashmore believes we are approaching a similar inflection point.
Cashmore:
In my opinion, prices cannot keep rising this late into the cycle.
But the key question is not whether prices move higher from here. In some areas, they may.
It is how close we are to the turning point.
The Framework That Changes the Lens
This is where her work diverges from the mainstream.
The 18-year cycle has been observed in financial markets for centuries and formed the basis of the Benner Cycle, where turning points consistently averaged around 18 years.
However, Samuel Benner did not connect this cycle to real estate, and therefore had no economic explanation for why it occurred.
That came later through the work of U.S economists Homer Hoyt and Roy Wenzlick, who linked the cycle directly to land values, credit expansion, and speculation.
For a deeper breakdown of the history and data behind this framework, Cashmore’s research is available at www.landcycleinvestor.com.
Does This Actually Apply to Australia?
This is where most people push back.
Australia is often seen as different. More resilient, better regulated, supported by strong population growth.
But according to Cashmore, the cycle absolutely exists here.
It just looks different.
Cashmore:
If you only look at nominal prices, Australia appears to trend upward. But once you adjust for inflation and look at real returns, the cycle becomes clear.
The Hidden Risk: Dead Money
One of the most important insights from our discussion is that downturns do not always look like crashes.
Sometimes, they look like nothing.
When Australian property is analysed in real terms, a clear pattern emerges:
• Strong growth phases
• Followed by long periods of stagnation
• Where real returns are effectively zero
These “dead money” periods can last 7 to 10 years or more.
Cashmore:
People think risk is prices falling. But often, the real risk is time.
Residential property prices for Australia. Source: ASX Trader
Why Australia Looks Different
There are reasons Australia’s cycle appears smoother than other markets:
• A strong banking system
• Aggressive policy intervention
• Immigration-driven demand
• Structural support for housing
But these factors do not remove the cycle. They reshape it.
Instead of consistent sharp collapses, Australia often experiences:
• Periods of stagnation in some regions
• Sharp downturns in others, both residential and commercial
• Extended periods of low real returns overall
Cashmore:
Intervention doesn’t eliminate the cycle. It just spreads it out.
The Psychology of the Peak
If the data tells one story, behaviour tells another.
Cashmore emphasises that the final phase of the cycle is driven less by fundamentals and more by psychology.
Cashmore:
Late in the cycle, people stop questioning prices. They assume they will keep rising.
You see fear of missing out. Buyers stretching further. Risk starts to feel safe.
That is when the system becomes fragile.
Why Rising Rates Don’t Stop It
One of the more counterintuitive dynamics is how interest rates behave late in the cycle.
Cashmore:
Rates often rise into the peak. But instead of immediately cooling the market, they can accelerate activity at first.
People rush in before borrowing becomes more expensive. It is only after that pressure builds that the system begins to crack.
Where We Are Now
So where does that leave us today?
According to Cashmore, firmly in the late stage.
Cashmore:
You’ve had strong price growth, significant credit expansion, and tight supply. That supports prices, but it also builds imbalance.
The key point is that strength late in the cycle does not mean safety.
Australia’s Position in the Cycle
Cashmore’s research suggests Australia is now approaching the end of its fourth land cycle since World War II:
• Cycle one: 1950s to 1973 to 1974 peak
• Cycle two: mid-1970s to 1992
• Cycle three: early 1990s to 2008
• Cycle four: 2008 to projected peak in 2026 to 2027
Cashmore:
By 2028, we are likely entering another major global downturn. That is what defines the land cycle.
The Timeline That Matters
Using the post-GFC period as a base, particularly around 2012 when land values began accelerating again, the timeline points to:
• Peak: 2026 to 2027
• Market rollover: shortly after
• Economic downturn: 2028 to 2030
This aligns not just with the land cycle, but also with the Benner Cycle and the excess phase seen post-COVID.
What Most Investors Get Wrong
Most investors are focused on the wrong things.
They watch:
• Interest rates
• Headlines
• Short-term price movements
But miss the broader structure.
Cashmore:
If you don’t understand where you are in the cycle, you’re reacting instead of preparing.
The Bigger Picture
At its core, this is not just a market story. It is a structural one.
The cycle persists because of how the system is designed, particularly how land is taxed and how credit flows into it.
Cashmore:
When land gains are largely untaxed, it encourages speculation. Credit amplifies that behaviour.
Unless those incentives change, the cycle will continue.
A more detailed breakdown of this framework is expected to be released through Prosper Australia in an upcoming paper by Cashmore.
This is not about prediction.
It is about pattern recognition.
Different models. Different datasets. Same conclusion.
The risk is not that something unexpected happens.
It is that it unfolds exactly as it has before and most people still are not looking.
DISCLAIMER: Information and opinions provided in this column are general in nature and have been prepared for educational purposes only. Always seek personal financial advice tailored to your specific needs before making financial and investment decisions.