Dr Gavin Putland has updated the Kavanagh-Putland Ratio chart–which includes all Australian real estate sales (i.e., residential, commercial-industrial, rural and other) as against Australian GDP–to include details for the financial year ended 30 June 2024.

But we’re now in April 2025, are we not?

Yes, but not to worry, the K-P Ratio assists to forecast economic recessions within the forthcoming 12 to 18 months; so we may say the aspect is reasonably good for the rest of 2025 and the first half of 2026.

What we need to see to call an upcoming recession is a 25% decline in the year-on-year ratio, together with a significant decline in real estate prices. We experienced both of these in 2018 (which heralded the 2020 ‘Covid’ recession) but not in 2023 when, although the ratio declined, real estate prices did not.