I’ve had queries on Twitter to the effect of whether I can be certain about a financial collapse in 2027 following a rabid final real estate peak from 2024 to 2026.

The answer is no, of course. The forecast is based upon stochastic data.

However, the principle underpinning the forecast is scientific and deterministic, namely (as Henry George and have others noted), wages and earned profits (as separate from super-profits or rents) are residual after increasing land prices (privatised land rent), viz, P – R = W + I. It is only the timing that’s at issue regarding the real estate peak and financial collapse.

The approximate 18-year real estate cycle (with mid-term decline) since 1800 is the forecast’s variable, but the post-war peaks have been quite consistent: i.e. 1954, 1972, 1990, 2008, (2026).