Although I share a birthday with WD Gann, I never did get into his technical analysis of the 18 year cycle. I’d better watch out, because I’ve achieved the age at which Gann passed on.

Many people deride Gann’s cycle because it’s based in geometry, astronomy and—wait for it!–astrology.

But it does appear to be a thing. In fact, a friend of mine Philip J Anderson has written a compelling book on the subject depicting the 18 year US real estate cycle since 1800. It contains an impressively detailed historical account of the times and happenings in the land market that accompanied each cycle.

Based on international real estate studies, Fred Harrison had earlier posited the 18-year cycle in his The Power in the Land in 1983 . Several of Harrison’s eighteen subsequent books touch upon the cycle.

I remember my professional journal The Valuer carrying a chart on the cycle which was found inside an old nineteenth century desk. It cast the cycle forward into the twentieth century. I seem to remember that it differed a little from the following diagram by George Tritch but it was similar.

But therein lies another story. From whence did George Tritch obtain the chart of the 18-year cycle about he was canny enough to copyright?

It was probably from Samuel Benner who knew much about seasonal agricultural cycles and published a book (of which I’m not familiar) about them. And what do the seasons, the moon and agriculture have in common? Oh oh ….?

With China looking like it may be heading into the doldrums, the question becomes will the USA and the west be able hold out until 2026?

i.e., 1954-1972-1990-2008-(2026?)

And who’s coming forward to support VIMMLBUTT to carry us through the ensuing crash once this gargantuan bubble does burst?