All posts by Bryan Kavanagh

I'm a real estate valuer who worked in the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) before co-founding Westlink Consulting, a real estate valuation practice. I discovered, by leaving publicly-generated land rents to be privately capitalised by banks and individuals into escalating land price bubbles, this generates repetitive recessions and financial depressions. We need a tax-switch: from wages, profits and commodities onto economic rents/unearned incomes, if we are to create prosperity and minimise excessive private debt.

CONSEQUENCES

Economists have ignored the land price bubbles which develop repetitively – at least, until after the event, at which time many seem to become all-knowing. Were they to follow the sequence of these bubbles, they’d discover that land prices tend to describe a cyclic pattern of nine and eighteen years, the latter being the more predominant.

As the eighteen-year sequence is invariable, it may be termed a consequence. That the bursting of these land price bubbles will generate financial recessions is also a consequence.

When land prices are permitted to develop into bank-financed bubbles, the consequences should be understood to be socially pathological. That is, the private debt generated by the land price bubble becomes impossible to sustain and financial recessions become the obvious consequence.

Instead of being ignored as they have been, these destructive socioeconomic consequences need addressing politically. They are far from being “the natural business cycle“.

WHY ‘REAL WAGES’ ARE BS

In the year to September 2025, Australians’ “real” wages are claimed to have grown by +0.2%. This is said to mark the eighth consecutive quarter of positive annual real wage growth—”the longest streak in nearly a decade“.

So, “real” wages are assessed by adjusting nominal wages by the CPI?

But isn’t CPI a joke? (Yes it is!)

So, what’s the real rate of inflation?

It’s more like the average 12.1% pa rate of land price inflation that we’ve experienced since 1971 which has devalued the Australian dollar in much the same way as the US dollar shown below. However, economists would have us believe the silly little CPI adjustment, because it makes us feel a little more comfortable than the more appropriate12.1% pa figure.

All of which signifies that real wages have continued to fall as land prices escalated upwards.

There’s an inverse relationship, you see?

SOME QUESTIONS

With so many Australians in impossible mortgage debt, why is it considered non-U to talk about the incredibly high land component of house sales at 80%+?

Why do current politicians cling to the ridiculous notion that high house prices are a matter of an inadequate supply of homes, when land prices represent the private capitalisation of unearned publicly-generated land rent? Shouldn’t we be taxing land prices more and incomes less?

How is that Australia’s standard of living led the world when we had land taxes at all three levels of government, and Australian politicians understood the evils spilling from land price speculation and treating land as a commodity? They no longer do. Why is this? Are they blind? Ignorant?

How is it that our politicians once discussed and saw the need to found the Australian Capital Territory on a leasehold system of landholding in 1913 if real estate speculators were to be kept at bay. They no longer think this way!

We now tax people’s incomes and their purchases which, added to the funding of rampantly escalating land prices, create untenable levels of private debt. Doesn’t this situation threaten of financial collapse?

How is it that Australia leads the world with its average land price now representing $375,000 per head of population? $10.3736 trillion in total land prices is some amount for such a relatively small population! (ABS 5204.061)

Has the completely misguided protection of banking and real estate’s interests in property spec, and allowing them to make their profits at any cost to the citizenry, delivered Australia, which used to know how to have affordable housing, to the door of economic depression?

The answers?

We have fiscal turpitude now ruling the nation.