THE Thucydides Trap is on


Thucydides had it all worked it out. Watch out for really nasty stuff when the ruling power is being challenged. It can’t be avoided and won’t be pretty.

The once supreme USA, caught busily financialising its stock and real estate market bubbles, is being overtaken by the industrialised Chinese powerhouse.

Not that China hasn’t pumped up its land prices to nosebleed heights, too. It’s just that China now makes the US look sick as a producer of industrial and IT wealth. The US had actively partaken in outsourcing much of this to China, to save on wage costs, and seems to be paying a penalty for being caught napping with its speculative financial interests. So, beware of the US-China shakeout.

The Doves are out, saying that it’s not inevitable: that diplomacy will forestall any military confrontation, because we can’t possibly afford to have have a full-on war these days. It would wipe out the world.

China is becoming more assertive: Hong Kong’s lease to the Brits having expired and it’s population having been recently shown who’s boss, China’s now eying off Taiwan.

So it’s looking bad.

If you look at China, however, its issues have been with Tibet, Japan and India, shared border or neighbouring countries; and its new ‘islands’ in the South China Sea. Although there’s not the same history of world military involvement as the US, there is the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative. Will that remain peaceful, or used to for support and military advantage?

As much as I’d like to believe the Doves, my money’s on Thucydides. It’s just a matter of when, because the USA won’t go down without a fight. It will likely be sold as the Western Good Guys v. those Chinese Commies.