OK, this website is called ‘The Depression’, so what do I think’s going on?
For most recessions and economic depressions, it’s rarely the sick economy itself and the ‘2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth’ which are emblematic of recession. There’s usually a ‘Black Swan’ event, something out of left field, accompanying the economic numbers, whether it be the OPEC crisis in the 1970s, or some other startling factor.
It’s pretty clear for anyone to see that the coronavirus, COVID-19, is our Black Swan: we’re in for a major recession.
The 25% decline in Kavanagh-Putland Index in 2018 had forecast a recession by June 2020. Unless the economy is fed rapidly by such as the Rudd government’s $50 billion-plus stimulus from 2008, recession will set-in up to 2 years of the 25% decline occurring in total real estate sales to GDP.
OK, so where are we now? I’m not 100% sure, but it’s looking too big to be the Georgist ‘mid-term’ recession, usually found between the approx 18-year real estate cycle (i.e. between the years 1972-1990-2008-2026).
Could this be ‘it’, that is, the depression?
Probably not, but it’s going to be big!
In my opinion, we’ll stagger along badly from this point until the final depressionary trough in 2026. “But aren’t we going to pull out of this in a couple of years?” Yeah, nah!
It’d be nice if our political representatives grew up and started to realise that the generality of humanity matters just as much as banking and the 0.1%.