OK share markets; here we are in October 2020. Not only October, but a year ending in a zero! Hmmm ……
Then there are facts. Such as our January 2019 forecast of a 2020 recession because total Australian real estate sales to GDP had declined by 25% ….. ever before COVID-19 struck. i.e. It was going to happen anyway.
Georgists, including Phil Anderson and Fred Harrison have described the recessions following real estate bubble peaks each 18 years since 1800. The more recent of these peaks were 1954, 1972, 1990, 2008. Within the 18-year cycle there’s usually a lesser mid-term cycle. That’s where world economies are now.
And 2026 is looking even worse. Is that it?
Yep, an economic depression, about which this website has been concerned over the last 11 years. However, can China and Australia–neither of which experienced recessions after their 2008 bubbles appeared to top out–hold out until then?
As a result of their failure to capture sufficient land rent publicly, both countries have generated impossible levels of private debt, so it wouldn’t surprise if their economies are tanking to a greater degree than anywhere else because they’re in deeper financial strife.
How long can China and Australia keep their real estate bubbles inflated at great cost to what really matters?