The Kondratieff Wave amounts to the period between economic depressions. We could add a fourth wave to those shown below, from the 1930s depression-WWII trough ending in 1949, up to a peak in 1973 and down to the beginning of the current depression in 2007. How long will this depression last?

kondratieffMost economists deny the existence of Nikolai Kondratieff’s ‘Long Waves in History’, because it mocks their efforts to control or contain them. It demonstrates a gross inability.

Although Kondratieff had no explanation for his smoothed deviations from the trend of 36 annual price, value and physical quantity series for the US, UK, France and Germany, a reader of these pages will see that I consider they are fashioned from repetitive, and increasing, bubbles in land markets and, together with Dr Gavin Putland, I’ve used Australia’s total real estate sales over GDP to confirm the case.

Those wanting further on my thesis might take a look at my forecasts in 2001 and 2005 here.

And isn’t the ability to forecast the very stuff of scientific explanation?

Problem is, K-Waves are very long, and most people wanting a forecast are thinking in terms of days or months.

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