All posts by Bryan Kavanagh

I'm a real estate valuer who worked in the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) before co-founding Westlink Consulting, a real estate valuation practice. I discovered, by leaving publicly-generated land rents to be privately capitalised by banks and individuals into escalating land price bubbles, this generates repetitive recessions and financial depressions. We need a tax-switch: from wages, profits and commodities onto economic rents/unearned incomes, if we are to create prosperity and minimise excessive private debt.

THE 18 YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE

Although I share a birthday with WD Gann, I never did get into his technical analysis of the 18 year cycle. I’d better watch out, because I’ve achieved the age at which Gann passed on.

Many people deride Gann’s cycle because it’s based in geometry, astronomy and—wait for it!–astrology.

But it does appear to be a thing. In fact, a friend of mine Philip J Anderson has written a compelling book on the subject depicting the 18 year US real estate cycle since 1800. It contains an impressively detailed historical account of the times and happenings in the land market that accompanied each cycle.

Based on international real estate studies, Fred Harrison had earlier posited the 18-year cycle in his The Power in the Land in 1983 . Several of Harrison’s eighteen subsequent books touch upon the cycle.

I remember my professional journal The Valuer carrying a chart on the cycle which was found inside an old nineteenth century desk. It cast the cycle forward into the twentieth century. I seem to remember that it differed a little from the following diagram by George Tritch but it was similar.

Geo Tritch Hardware advertisment
Clearer version above

But therein lies another story. From whence did George Tritch obtain the chart of the 18-year cycle about he was canny enough to copyright?

It was probably from Samuel Benner who knew much about seasonal agricultural cycles and published a book (of which I’m not familiar) about them. And what do the seasons, the moon and agriculture have in common? Oh oh ….?

With China looking like it may be heading into the doldrums, the question becomes will the USA and the west be able hold out until 2026?

i.e., 1954-1972-1990-2008-(2026?)

And who’s coming forward to support VIMMLBUTT to carry us through the ensuing crash once this gargantuan bubble does burst?

“THE PUBLIC GOOD”: A FADED MEMORY?

Has anyone noticed that the public good has given way completely to individual greed? It has snuck up on us gradually and imperceptibly over the last half century under the guise of “freedom of the individual” or economic neoliberalism.

The commonality we nevertheless shared as individuals has been lost as the common-wealth or economic rent that bound us together has been all but completely privatised.

That would be a good starting point if we wanted to explain the increasingly obvious socio-economic disintegration happening before our eyes.

But then I suppose a corrupt system thrives on these crises as an opportunity for the powerful to concentrate their grip even further.

We can’t have too much democracy in these circumstances, guys! Tough measures are called for – and the plebs will usually see it as being an example of good government!